Very very judicious words, that's pretty much exactly what I'm thinking.
Building a network, a community is the way to go. It doesn't have to be a secluded community somewhere out there. I don't think it's a good idea for a person to run for the hills to some foreign place. Most are not (mentally) equipped to do that anyway.
The most important quality is the ability to adapt. Also, hope for the best, but expect the worst.
Try to find a small but "nice" rural community to which you can relocate. If that is the place you were from, maybe you should revisit that place. Maybe nothing will happen, and we will all happily live to 101 years old. Or, maybe not. In a sense, given your age, health, skills, family, and wealth, everyone should look for his or her most suitable plan B and plan Z. Plan B if you get laid off when you don't want to retire, and plan Z if you want to survive WW3. My guess is we are in a slow-motion WW3 already. Even if the Israel-Iran War gets nuclear, there is a good chance that the nuclear exchange will stay there. Iran can endure several nuclear bombs and still fighting like a nation (albeit crippled). Israel cannot survive one nuclear bomb hit.
Good advice. There is a right-size, which means that there are good supply arrangements, good grocery and hardware supplies, basic medical care, and maybe even a rail-line. Water should be readily accessible. There should be a long and stable history of peace in the area, and good farmland, with weather that does not usually kill anybody.
That has narrowed it down a lot. You are likely looking at a population between 2000 and 12,000.
I have a homestead at the edge of such a town with a big garden and struggling young fruit trees.
Since you are at least aware of the Japanese tradition, I will add the case of the Ikko-Ikki. During the Warring State era in Japan, the buddhist monks and their followers formed self sufficient communities which resisted warlord encroachment. Oda Nobunaga, the warlord who reconquered most of Japan, simply killed them all.
Do you think the Central Authorities, who would abandon the people and hide until the crisis is over, will tolerate survivalist communities? No. They will return to power, and do what they did before, adapting to available tech. Since they are likely to posess the most advanced tech available they will gain enough follower to incinerate all the survivalist communities who will be technologically inferior.
But you ignore the examples of gardeners and farmers surviving better than those without gardens and farms.
Why is that?
Dachas provided something like half of Russia's fresh vegetables in the 1990s. "Allotments" extended the lifespan of English factory workers by 10 years in the 1800s Industrialization. "Victory gardens" helped Americans in both world wars and the Depression.
When Order is restored, the gardens and orchards are looted and burnt, the owners shot and the land approptiated by the Old Order. Sometimes they are given to loyal soldiers.
Who owned the dachas? Petty party officials and other hangars om of the Old Order. The 'people' lived in apartments and no such options allowed.
You seem uninclined to look at the benefits of growing fresh vegitables during the kinds of hard times that may drop a population by 10%, as the 1990s did in Russia.
our owners want to thin our herds, while keeping the functionality of modern industrial economy, which produces their wealth.
It's delicate.
They have their heavy finger on the scale.
Do what you can to favor yourself, your friends and family.
Similar things happened in China, and will happen in the US, sooner or later. You have the freedom to bow for the hope of survival (not guaranteed) or illogically choose to fight to the end (as many would do). As for the dark future of techno-oligarchy authoritarian regimes supported by AI and robots, yes, IMHO that is given. But I am not going to make their progress any easier.
Joining the governmental forces and loot other survivors? Sometimes that works but it is likely that the forces will just treat anyone trying to help them as zombies and kill them later.
In some ways, it is best to be with friends and family, rather than relocating. If you relocate, you have to start over. You need to build a network of friends and business associates all over again.
It may sometimes be possible to find a place that meets requirements about 1-2 hours drive from most family members, and to prepare it as a redoubt, a lifeboat, as I am doing myself. It has very good soil, and mild winters, and a long history of peace, with an economy that never included slavery.
It sounds like you are alluding to a preppers retreat when you mention the issues facing a “sustainable” farm. Prepping is not viable in the long term. When replacement parts and specialized chemicals go by the wayside, it’s no longer sustainable, not even counting government agents dropping by to decide how your crop is going to be “shared” at harvest. Migrant laborers won’t be available at harvest time either.
You are correct in stating that family members will be an advantage. I believe they will be essential in the future. Scarcity is an issue for most, however. There are simply not that many large, extended families around. What we need is friends. Friends we know and trust. Local, IRL friends. Friends can become a mutually supportive “family” once a certain threshold is reached.
Guerrilla Gardening for vegetables and potatoes can happen in the city as well as in the countryside. Small animal husbandry can supply essential protein and those animals can be fed on local grasses using a few small cages in a back room. You have to think small, stealthy, and distributed. It can be done. You just need to develop those friends.
Read the comment I made to Nakayama above. Survivalist communities will be eliminated by the Authorities when they return. They will just label all of such as zombies or something like that and their soldiers, hardened fighters who take no prisoners, will eliminate them all
Yes, I am referring to Prepping. One of my assistants didn't like the use of that word. I am sure people with different language backgrounds are reading my posts.
What little I have seen of prepping is that they were depending too much on "business as usual" to go on, everywhere else. For example, they lived 20 miles from town, and expected to buy many supplies there. If the world changes, we cannot expect to buy most of what we need in town. We also have to think about the distance for walking.
The deep state has come its conclusion: War! We take what we need!
The former prime minister of Poland actually made a public statement that the aim of the war against Russia was to take Russian oil to usher in a new golden age for the West.
Brian Berletic is good at geopolitics simply by reading what the think tanks are publishing.
Compared to China, the US doesn't manufacture very much. But China and Russia seem to be running into problems, too. It is not clear any country can do much beyond the petroleum age.
Professor Ugo Bardi provides context: The End of the Consumer Society and the Militarization of the Economy: For everything that happens, there is a reason for it to happen.
In the consumer economy, resources are turned into consumer goods by the industry, and then into waste by consumers. In the military economy, the industry turns resources into military equipment, then the enemy takes care of turning it into waste. Apart from a small difference in the role of the agents, the mechanism is the same. https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-consumer-society-and
I do not agree that self-sufficient farms will be too difficult for much success. You mention complex infrastructure? Not when you grow your own fertility, design for natural pest control, and sell only into local markets. Robbers? Not when most of the year your goods are not ripe, your animals require experience to make productive, and anyway why kill the golden goose? Since it takes more than one farmer to produce food without fossil fuels, the demise of one among say 6 for each farm is survivable. Such farms are the bridge to widespread sustainable agriculture. Here's how that can work: Each farm grows modest amounts of a wide variety of foods, only enough for the immediate neighbors with overage going to a community food hub. Farms and these food hubs do lots of value-add, preserving produce, meats, eggs and milk. These activities provide lots of jobs for local people. Apprenticeships and research can take place on the farms. There can also be community engagement in the form of work parties at times of year when much labor is needed as well as social gatherings for celebrations which build community cohesiveness.
I share your opinion on this, Doc. I have begun researching and familiarizing myself with the edible flora of my region. Hunting and gathering is going to be the only chance at sustainability. If you farm, you have to store up food. That's wealth available for capture. The commenter says that crops aren't ripe most of the year. Well, sure, but what are the farmers eating most of the year? Stored goods. That's easy pickings for a raider. Meanwhile, if my tribe eats the weeds and grasses, we aren't worth messing with, as we have nothing worth taking.
Lots of good stuff here.
However your premise of peak oil is incorrect. Doomberg has conclusively debunked this on numerous occasions.
Very very judicious words, that's pretty much exactly what I'm thinking.
Building a network, a community is the way to go. It doesn't have to be a secluded community somewhere out there. I don't think it's a good idea for a person to run for the hills to some foreign place. Most are not (mentally) equipped to do that anyway.
The most important quality is the ability to adapt. Also, hope for the best, but expect the worst.
Try to find a small but "nice" rural community to which you can relocate. If that is the place you were from, maybe you should revisit that place. Maybe nothing will happen, and we will all happily live to 101 years old. Or, maybe not. In a sense, given your age, health, skills, family, and wealth, everyone should look for his or her most suitable plan B and plan Z. Plan B if you get laid off when you don't want to retire, and plan Z if you want to survive WW3. My guess is we are in a slow-motion WW3 already. Even if the Israel-Iran War gets nuclear, there is a good chance that the nuclear exchange will stay there. Iran can endure several nuclear bombs and still fighting like a nation (albeit crippled). Israel cannot survive one nuclear bomb hit.
Good advice. There is a right-size, which means that there are good supply arrangements, good grocery and hardware supplies, basic medical care, and maybe even a rail-line. Water should be readily accessible. There should be a long and stable history of peace in the area, and good farmland, with weather that does not usually kill anybody.
That has narrowed it down a lot. You are likely looking at a population between 2000 and 12,000.
I have a homestead at the edge of such a town with a big garden and struggling young fruit trees.
The fate of survivalist communities
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3iHUlIqLvQ&pp=ygUbbmlnaHQgb2YgbGl2aW5nIGRlYWQgZW5kaW5n
https://youtu.be/yCOE5IUnOKY?si=EAEnbF4rKsKnBEy_
Since you are at least aware of the Japanese tradition, I will add the case of the Ikko-Ikki. During the Warring State era in Japan, the buddhist monks and their followers formed self sufficient communities which resisted warlord encroachment. Oda Nobunaga, the warlord who reconquered most of Japan, simply killed them all.
Do you think the Central Authorities, who would abandon the people and hide until the crisis is over, will tolerate survivalist communities? No. They will return to power, and do what they did before, adapting to available tech. Since they are likely to posess the most advanced tech available they will gain enough follower to incinerate all the survivalist communities who will be technologically inferior.
That's nihilism, an excuse to do nothing.
You are lazy.
Get up and do something constructive.
It is not nihilism. It is called learning from examples.
But you ignore the examples of gardeners and farmers surviving better than those without gardens and farms.
Why is that?
Dachas provided something like half of Russia's fresh vegetables in the 1990s. "Allotments" extended the lifespan of English factory workers by 10 years in the 1800s Industrialization. "Victory gardens" helped Americans in both world wars and the Depression.
When Order is restored, the gardens and orchards are looted and burnt, the owners shot and the land approptiated by the Old Order. Sometimes they are given to loyal soldiers.
Who owned the dachas? Petty party officials and other hangars om of the Old Order. The 'people' lived in apartments and no such options allowed.
Nobody is making you learn to grow vegetables.
You seem uninclined to look at the benefits of growing fresh vegitables during the kinds of hard times that may drop a population by 10%, as the 1990s did in Russia.
our owners want to thin our herds, while keeping the functionality of modern industrial economy, which produces their wealth.
It's delicate.
They have their heavy finger on the scale.
Do what you can to favor yourself, your friends and family.
"Win" by surviving longer with your people.
Deciding Where To Grow Vegetables https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/deciding-where-to-grow-vegetables
Preparing Your Kitchen Garden https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/preparing-your-kitchen-garden
Growing Food https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/growing-food
Similar things happened in China, and will happen in the US, sooner or later. You have the freedom to bow for the hope of survival (not guaranteed) or illogically choose to fight to the end (as many would do). As for the dark future of techno-oligarchy authoritarian regimes supported by AI and robots, yes, IMHO that is given. But I am not going to make their progress any easier.
There is a third option, for those that pick up on the clue.
Joining the governmental forces and loot other survivors? Sometimes that works but it is likely that the forces will just treat anyone trying to help them as zombies and kill them later.
In some ways, it is best to be with friends and family, rather than relocating. If you relocate, you have to start over. You need to build a network of friends and business associates all over again.
It may sometimes be possible to find a place that meets requirements about 1-2 hours drive from most family members, and to prepare it as a redoubt, a lifeboat, as I am doing myself. It has very good soil, and mild winters, and a long history of peace, with an economy that never included slavery.
Gail,
It sounds like you are alluding to a preppers retreat when you mention the issues facing a “sustainable” farm. Prepping is not viable in the long term. When replacement parts and specialized chemicals go by the wayside, it’s no longer sustainable, not even counting government agents dropping by to decide how your crop is going to be “shared” at harvest. Migrant laborers won’t be available at harvest time either.
You are correct in stating that family members will be an advantage. I believe they will be essential in the future. Scarcity is an issue for most, however. There are simply not that many large, extended families around. What we need is friends. Friends we know and trust. Local, IRL friends. Friends can become a mutually supportive “family” once a certain threshold is reached.
Guerrilla Gardening for vegetables and potatoes can happen in the city as well as in the countryside. Small animal husbandry can supply essential protein and those animals can be fed on local grasses using a few small cages in a back room. You have to think small, stealthy, and distributed. It can be done. You just need to develop those friends.
Edit: Cages go in a back room, not on…
Just grow the best vegetable garden you can. It has always, in history, helped people survive hard times.
Deciding Where To Grow Vegetables https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/deciding-where-to-grow-vegetables
Preparing Your Kitchen Garden https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/preparing-your-kitchen-garden
Growing Food https://drjohnsblog.substack.com/p/growing-food
Read the comment I made to Nakayama above. Survivalist communities will be eliminated by the Authorities when they return. They will just label all of such as zombies or something like that and their soldiers, hardened fighters who take no prisoners, will eliminate them all
Yes, I am referring to Prepping. One of my assistants didn't like the use of that word. I am sure people with different language backgrounds are reading my posts.
What little I have seen of prepping is that they were depending too much on "business as usual" to go on, everywhere else. For example, they lived 20 miles from town, and expected to buy many supplies there. If the world changes, we cannot expect to buy most of what we need in town. We also have to think about the distance for walking.
Bicycles and bike trailers will become a thing. Already are with what I consider a bellwether trend: The homeless.
Yes, a practical bicycle, well fitted to the rider, that can carry things with a rack and bags, for instance.
Ride regularly, too.
The deep state has come its conclusion: War! We take what we need!
The former prime minister of Poland actually made a public statement that the aim of the war against Russia was to take Russian oil to usher in a new golden age for the West.
Brian Berletic is good at geopolitics simply by reading what the think tanks are publishing.
https://open.substack.com/pub/rachelblevins/p/attack-iran-israel-trump-brian-berletic?r=5snknl&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false
At least they are honest
it is a war to keep the Western Civilization alive. A loss means the Eastern Hordes overwhelm the West and the progress ends.
The progress ends because the Western Civilization couldn't develop beyond the petroleum age
We are going to war to maintain our civilization a bit longer and to give us more time
Are we winning the war?
Compared to China, the US doesn't manufacture very much. But China and Russia seem to be running into problems, too. It is not clear any country can do much beyond the petroleum age.
I don't think that Russia and China have solved the energy/matter equation
I don't think that anyone understands what the four fundamental forces are or how they are produced
I don't think that we are intelligent
I am afraid that this is pretty much the way the physics of the system works. When things are going terribly badly, the deep state demands war.
Professor Ugo Bardi provides context: The End of the Consumer Society and the Militarization of the Economy: For everything that happens, there is a reason for it to happen.
In the consumer economy, resources are turned into consumer goods by the industry, and then into waste by consumers. In the military economy, the industry turns resources into military equipment, then the enemy takes care of turning it into waste. Apart from a small difference in the role of the agents, the mechanism is the same. https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/the-end-of-the-consumer-society-and
I do not agree that self-sufficient farms will be too difficult for much success. You mention complex infrastructure? Not when you grow your own fertility, design for natural pest control, and sell only into local markets. Robbers? Not when most of the year your goods are not ripe, your animals require experience to make productive, and anyway why kill the golden goose? Since it takes more than one farmer to produce food without fossil fuels, the demise of one among say 6 for each farm is survivable. Such farms are the bridge to widespread sustainable agriculture. Here's how that can work: Each farm grows modest amounts of a wide variety of foods, only enough for the immediate neighbors with overage going to a community food hub. Farms and these food hubs do lots of value-add, preserving produce, meats, eggs and milk. These activities provide lots of jobs for local people. Apprenticeships and research can take place on the farms. There can also be community engagement in the form of work parties at times of year when much labor is needed as well as social gatherings for celebrations which build community cohesiveness.
Working the problem is the process of adapting to change.
I do not really think too much about self sufficient farms. Read my comment to Nakayama above.
If you think it is worth trying, I wish you luck.
I share your opinion on this, Doc. I have begun researching and familiarizing myself with the edible flora of my region. Hunting and gathering is going to be the only chance at sustainability. If you farm, you have to store up food. That's wealth available for capture. The commenter says that crops aren't ripe most of the year. Well, sure, but what are the farmers eating most of the year? Stored goods. That's easy pickings for a raider. Meanwhile, if my tribe eats the weeds and grasses, we aren't worth messing with, as we have nothing worth taking.
Armies leave the potatoes and sweet potatoes in the ground, and always have.
Nothing worth taking except your labor. Best be really stealthy when times get that bad.
Never be impressive.
;-)
I hear slavery is making a comeback.